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U.S. Dollar In Long Term Decline

Key Investment Principle #3

  • U.S. investors must think and invest globally to avoid losing purchasing power as the U.S. dollar declines against other major currencies.
    • Purchasing power of the U.S. consumer’s dollar has fallen from $1 in 1914 to just 5 cents today.
    • An ounce of gold would buy a gentlemen’s wool suit in the 1920’s and will still buy a wool suit today.
    • The U.S. dollars used to buy a wool suit in the 1920’s will not even buy a handkerchief today!
  • The U.S. dollar is in a long-term declining trend due to the following:
    • Unprecedented trade deficit and high levels of fiscal and public debt.
    • Un-funded government entitlement liabilities.
    • U.S. government and banks increasing the supply of U.S. dollars to cover these debts in a scheme called “monetization of the debt”. This simply means inflating our way out of debt.
  • Investors need to have portfolio allocations of real assets (for example gold) and international stocks to hedge against the devaluation of the U.S. dollar.

dollar index
Click to view: U.S. Dollar Index

us transfers
Click to view: U.S. Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid Transfers as % of GDP, Source: "the Economic Costs of Long-Term Federal Obligations" Congressional Budget Office July 24, 2003

next: Key Investment Principle #4 »